Security of gas supply remains strong – growing interest in connecting to the gas network highlights the role of infrastructure in the energy system

Gas Market Review Q2–Q3/2026

During the second and third quarters of 2026, gas consumption in Finland has mainly consisted of the relatively stable base load from industry. As we move into the winter season, the focus is on ensuring sufficient gas supply and the gas system’s ability to respond to changing electricity market and weather conditions. Tightening conditions in the international gas market have created upward pressure on gas prices. Interest in connecting to the gas network has grown, both in the production of renewable bio- and e-methane and in the use of gas for electricity generation and as a backup power source for data centres. This reinforces the role of gas infrastructure as part of the future energy system.

Following an extremely cold winter, the Finnish gas market entered a period of lower and more stable gas consumption in the second and third quarters of 2026. At the beginning of the year, gases and gas infrastructure created significant value for society by enabling reliable balancing power production, while Finland’s energy system and markets functioned well. Gases and gas infrastructure helped moderate electricity price spikes and provided electricity generation capacity, thereby strengthening security of supply.

During the second and third quarters, the majority of Finland’s gas demand came from consumption in the industrial sector. The industrial sector represents an important and relatively stable base demand for the gas market. The base load, consisting mainly of industrial gas consumption, has averaged just over 20 gigawatt-hours per day.

Although industrial gas consumption has fallen from the levels seen in previous years, gases remain an important source of energy and raw material in industrial processes that require high temperatures or a controllable energy supply. Gases are also important in industrial sectors where switching to alternative solutions requires significant investment.

The Inkoo LNG terminal is a key part of the gas system: gas supply plays a central role during the winter season

The majority of Finland’s gas consumption during the second and third quarters has been met via the Balticconnector offshore pipeline between Finland and Estonia and the Inkoo LNG terminal, with the Balticconnector having served as the main supply channel since the beginning of September. According to the schedule published by the terminal, gas supply from the Inkoo terminal to the gas network for the remaining part of 2026 is expected to commence on 20 October 2026, after which gas will be available at the terminal until the end of the calendar year. The terminal operator will publish the service schedule for the coming year by 25 November 2026, in accordance with the terminal rules. However, the terminal operator aims to publish the schedule as soon as possible; in previous years, publication has taken place as early as October.

As the winter season begins, sufficient gas availability and supply arrangements play a key role in the gas market. Balticconnector’s transmission capacity, which under normal conditions is 70.5 gigawatt-hours per day, cannot on its own meet Finland’s demand in a tight energy market. The Inkoo LNG terminal’s regasification capacity and flexibility, on the other hand, enable gas to be supplied at a rate of up to 140 gigawatt-hours per day, allowing the terminal to respond rapidly to growing demand provided that sufficient gas is available at the terminal. As demand peaks depend on weather and electricity market conditions and are difficult to forecast more than a week in advance, coordinating long LNG supply chains with rapidly emerging demand requires advanced planning, particularly during the winter season.

Geopolitics and the state of gas storage facilities affect gas prices

Gas prices in Europe have reacted strongly over the course of the year to changes in the international LNG market and the geopolitical situation. In the second quarter, TTF prices were mainly between 40 and 50 euros per megawatt-hour, and prices fell in early April as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased. At the start of July, the situation in the region became tense once again, after which prices have been on an upward trend, currently around 80 euros per megawatt hour. Prices are also being influenced by the lower-than-usual fill levels of European gas storage facilities. On 20 September 2026, the fill rate of EU gas storage facilities was around 70 per cent. The fill rate of the Incukalns gas storage facility in Latvia – which is key to the Finnish gas market – was around 48 per cent in mid-September, corresponding to an energy volume of 11.5 terawatt-hours.

Despite the low fill rate, the security of gas supply has remained stable, as the Finland–Baltic region has significant LNG import capacity and the technical capacity of the Balticconnector is available to market participants in accordance with normal operational conditions. However, the prolonged tight situation in the electricity market, combined with a cold spell, poses a risk of rising gas prices if there is a shortage of gas supply.

A third factor affecting European gas market prices is the rise in Asian prices in recent weeks, which is intensifying competition between Europe and Asia for spot LNG deliveries.

The factors described above show that gas prices in Finland are strongly linked to the European gas market, which in turn is influenced by developments in the global gas market.

Strong interest in connecting to the gas network

Alongside current market volumes, one of the most encouraging signs is the renewed interest in connecting to the gas transmission network. Potential new connecting parties include producers planning to inject renewable biomethane or synthetic e-methane into the gas system, as well as customers planning to use gas particularly for electricity generation and backup power for data centres. E-methane is synthetic methane produced from hydrogen and carbon dioxide through methanation.

For new bio- and e-methane projects, the gas network provides access for geographically dispersed production to a wider gas market. Renewable methane injected into the network can be transported from the production site to different points of consumption using the existing gas infrastructure. The growing interest among producers in connecting to the network also reflects the changing role of the gas system: it is evolving from a transmission system for fossil natural gas into a market platform for renewable gases. Furthermore, domestic production strengthens Finland’s energy self-sufficiency.

As weather-dependent generation in the electricity system increases, generation capacity is needed that can respond rapidly to variations in electricity generation and consumption. Gas-based electricity generation can provide this type of flexibility. The high availability requirements for data centres’ electricity supply also create a need for backup power solutions. Gas-based backup power connected to the gas network is a viable option in this market, as continuous access to fuel can be secured through the network instead of separate on-site fuel storage.

Mika Myötyri
VP, Gas Markets and Customers
Gasgrid

Gasgrid is a multi-gas company of the future providing energy transmission system solutions to promote clean transition and an energy-efficient society. We strengthen Finland’s economic growth, security of supply, and energy independence, and support the balancing power required for emission-free electricity production. Through our international infrastructure projects, we are preparing to meet the demand for clean gas energy in Europe as well. Gasgrid Group’s business operations consist of gas operations, LNG terminal operations, hydrogen development, and project execution. More information: gasgrid.fi